AUD/USD: possible resumption higher

The pair has fallen and then rebounded off of the 0.8990 lows. The bounce is quite strong and has led to run up to 0.9013 so far. The reversal higher has been quite sudden and rapid – at least in the short-term. We have just reached resistance from the monthly pivot and the 4-hourly candlestick has formed a shooting star indicating possible exhaustion. Given the short-term down-trend remains dominant it may resume. Nevertheless the break above the down-sloping trend-line in the middle of August was a very bullish sign and introduces some doubt, and this latest spurt higher may the start of a resumption of the neglected up-trend with an eventual target in the 0.94s. Either is possible. A re-break above the 0.9013 highs would be required for confirmation of a continuation up to the next resistance level at 0.9115. On the other hand a decisive break below the 0.8990 lows could signal a continuation lower, with the S1 monthly pivot at 0.8755 providing a down-side target.